Korona Kielce 2-1 Widzew Lodz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.74
Over
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.82
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
21%
3.8
6+
10%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.28
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
18%
5.1
X/2
10%
6.52
X/X
9%
4.34
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
15%
4.79
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
1.49/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.42
-11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.8 Crosses 20.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Widzew Lodz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.65 xG 1.02
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
233 Passes 345
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.12.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-0 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POLK
04.10.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
01.04.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 3-1 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
22.09.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 1-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
27.05.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-3 HT 0-2 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
12.11.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
2-1
AWAY Widzew Lodz
1.53 xG 0.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
262 Passes 220
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce edged past Widzew Lodz 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Korona Kielce as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 53% of the ball to Widzew Lodz's 47%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.53 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Korona Kielce had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Korona Kielce and 0.83 for Widzew Lodz.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz?

Korona Kielce 2-1 Widzew Lodz in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 42%, draw 27%, Widzew Lodz 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Korona Kielce) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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