Spartak Moskova 1-2 Makhachkala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.32
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.67
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 33% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.55
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
21.85
X/1
16%
3.67
X/2
4%
19.1
X/X
9%
6.64
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
6%
18.05
2/X
8%
26.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
71%
-7.4pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.3pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.2pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.96/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.63
-11% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / +36%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
413 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.2 Crosses 14.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Makhachkala
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.55 xG 0.54
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
413 Passes 150
81% Pass Accuracy 57%
29 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
15.09.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 1-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.08.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-1 HT 0-1 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
1-2
AWAY Makhachkala
2.94 xG 0.84
74% Ball Possession 26%
24 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
479 Passes 104
85% Pass Accuracy 52%
35 Box Touches 11
50 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Makhachkala nicked a narrow win over Spartak Moskova 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Spartak Moskova at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 74% of the ball to Makhachkala's 26%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 2.94 to 0.84 — the balance of chances actually favoured Spartak Moskova.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.67 for Makhachkala.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala?

Spartak Moskova 1-2 Makhachkala in the Russia - Premier League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 64%, draw 23%, Makhachkala 14%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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