Gorica 2-0 Tolmin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 2.SNL, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
68%
1.22
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.29
Over
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.19
No
47%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
44%
4-5
29%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Gorica win — 68%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
78%
-10.1pp
18%
Draw
15%
+2.7pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
42%
+11.4pp
47%
BTTS No
58%
-11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gorica EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Tolmin EU Bookmakers 9%
-12% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.86/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/2.24
-12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gorica
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Tolmin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
67% Ball Possession 33%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
28.09.2024 Tolmin Tolmin 1-2 HT 1-1 Gorica Gorica SLVN2
29.10.2023 Gorica Gorica 2-3 HT 1-0 Tolmin Tolmin SLVN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gorica
2-0
AWAY Tolmin
68% Ball Possession 32%
23 Total Shots 4
12 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gorica vs Tolmin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gorica got the better of Tolmin 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gorica as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gorica had 68% of the ball to Tolmin's 32%, shots finished 23-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Gorica and 2.00 for Tolmin.

What was the final score of Gorica vs Tolmin?

Gorica 2-0 Tolmin in the Slovenia - 2.SNL on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gorica vs Tolmin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Gorica 68%, draw 18%, Tolmin 14%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gorica) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gorica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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