Southampton 2-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 11 Apr 2026

Southampton
2-1 HT 0-1
Derby County
📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Southampton vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.03
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
14%
4.15
X/2
6%
10.2
X/X
10%
5.56
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
21.8
2/2
10%
8.05
2/X
6%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.0pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.6pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Southampton v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +20%
1.78/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.33
+19% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 74%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
20.8 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Southampton vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Derby County
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.55 xG 1.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
378 Passes 325
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.10.2025 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-1 Southampton Southampton İNCL
16.01.2019 Southampton Southampton 2-2 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County FAK
05.01.2019 Derby County Derby County 2-2 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton FAK
21.07.2018 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton HAZ
18.02.2012 Southampton Southampton 4-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
15.10.2011 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL

Southampton 2-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
2-1
AWAY Derby County
1.64 xG 0.91
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
384 Passes 216
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 17
34 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton squeezed past Derby County 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Southampton had 62% of the ball to Derby County's 38%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.64 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Southampton and 1.50 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Derby County?

Southampton 2-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Southampton 55%, draw 21%, Derby County 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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