Middlesbrough 0-1 Portsmouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 11 Apr 2026

Middlesbrough
0-1 HT 0-0
Portsmouth
📅11/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.65
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 32% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.8
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.45
X/1
24%
3.89
X/2
5%
12.3
X/X
10%
5.99
2/1
8%
21.8
2/2
9%
10.25
2/X
5%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-3.2pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.3pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Portsmouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 19%
-8% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.67/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.50
-21% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 71%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.8 Crosses 19.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Portsmouth
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 0.71
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
436 Passes 244
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.10.2025 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
18.01.2025 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-1 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
24.08.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-2 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
03.03.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-3 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
06.08.2011 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
12.03.2011 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL

Middlesbrough 0-1 Portsmouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
0-1
AWAY Portsmouth
1.22 xG 0.43
71% Ball Possession 29%
20 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 2
487 Passes 151
85% Pass Accuracy 65%
38 Box Touches 4
30 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth squeezed past Middlesbrough 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Middlesbrough at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 71% of the ball to Portsmouth's 29%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 1.22 to 0.43 — the balance of chances actually favoured Middlesbrough.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portsmouth led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.33 for Portsmouth.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?

Middlesbrough 0-1 Portsmouth in the England - Championship on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Portsmouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 60%, draw 21%, Portsmouth 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Middlesbrough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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