Portsmouth 1-0 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.83
6+ Goals
12%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 29% vs market 28.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.48
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
11%
6.13
X/2
13%
5.08
X/X
13%
4.46
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
21%
3.35
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
33%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 43%
+12% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
1.54/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.13
+45% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
24.5 Crosses 16.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.86 xG 1.63
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
230 Passes 421
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.01.2025 Portsmouth Portsmouth 2-1 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
24.08.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-2 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
03.03.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-3 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
06.08.2011 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
12.03.2011 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
02.10.2010 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 2-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
1-0
AWAY Middlesbrough
0.57 xG 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 8
272 Passes 466
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth edged past Middlesbrough 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Portsmouth made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Portsmouth had 38% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 62%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.57 to 1.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Middlesbrough.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Portsmouth and 1.67 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough?

Portsmouth 1-0 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 33%, draw 26%, Middlesbrough 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
4 Oct 2025
14:30 Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City Analysis →
14:30 Sheffield Wednesday vs Coventry Analysis →
14:30 Hull City vs Sheffield United Analysis →
17:00 Swansea City vs Leicester City Analysis →
17:00 Millwall vs West Bromwich Analysis →
17:00 Preston North End vs Charlton Athletic Analysis →