Portsmouth 2-1 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 18 Jan 2025

Portsmouth
2-1 HT 0-1
Middlesbrough
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒18:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.2
1/2
9%
22.55
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.9
X/1
8%
8.43
X/2
13%
4.62
X/X
5%
5.07
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.44
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 1/X at 13.9 — our 12% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+4.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Portsmouth v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portsmouth EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 53%
+16% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.35/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.12
+68% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -39%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
256 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 76%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
23.9 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portsmouth
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
177 Passes 514
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-2 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
03.03.2012 Portsmouth Portsmouth 1-3 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
06.08.2011 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 1-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
12.03.2011 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
02.10.2010 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-2 HT 2-0 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNCL
14.03.2009 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-1 Portsmouth Portsmouth İNP

Portsmouth 2-1 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portsmouth
2-1
AWAY Middlesbrough
0.86 xG 1.63
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
284 Passes 328
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portsmouth nicked a narrow win over Middlesbrough 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Portsmouth had 47% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 53%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.86 to 1.63 — on chances, Middlesbrough could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Portsmouth and 1.67 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough?

Portsmouth 2-1 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Portsmouth 30%, draw 24%, Middlesbrough 47%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Middlesbrough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Over 2.5
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