Derby County 1-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Oct 2025

Derby County
1-1 HT 1-1
Southampton
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2025/2026

Derby County vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
4.3
6+ Goals
9%
22.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.19
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
15%
6.61
X/2
13%
4.76
X/X
10%
4.13
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
3.14
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.75
Value flag · 2/X at 13.75 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.3pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.30/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.06
+5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 78%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
20.8 Crosses 22.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Derby County vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Southampton
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.80
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
355 Passes 316
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 34
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.01.2019 Southampton Southampton 2-2 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County FAK
05.01.2019 Derby County Derby County 2-2 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton FAK
21.07.2018 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton HAZ
18.02.2012 Southampton Southampton 4-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
15.10.2011 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNCL
10.03.2009 Southampton Southampton 1-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 1-1 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-1
AWAY Southampton
1.67 xG 1.06
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
266 Passes 501
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County and Southampton shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Southampton at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Derby County had 37% of the ball to Southampton's 63%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.67 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Derby County and 1.67 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Southampton?

Derby County 1-1 Southampton in the England - Championship on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Derby County 31%, draw 28%, Southampton 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Southampton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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