Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 11 Apr 2026

📅11/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
13%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
69%
-0.4pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.9pp
13%
Away Win
11%
+1.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Smouha EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +5%
1.80/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.40
+25% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.1 Crosses 13.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Smouha
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.40 xG 0.80
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 254
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.02.2026 Smouha Smouha 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
07.01.2025 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-0 HT 1-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
08.08.2024 Smouha Smouha 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
28.11.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
17.04.2023 Smouha Smouha 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
17.01.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-1 HT 3-0 Smouha Smouha MSRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
2-1
AWAY Smouha
0.55 xG 0.40
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
442 Passes 161
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 8
29 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Smouha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly nicked a narrow win over Smouha 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahly had 69% of the ball to Smouha's 31%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.55 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Al Ahly and 0.17 for Smouha.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Smouha?

Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha in the Egypt - Premier League on 11/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Smouha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 68%, draw 19%, Smouha 13%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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