Smouha 0-1 Al Ahly — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 23 Feb 2026

Smouha
0-1 HT 0-1
Al Ahly
📅23/02/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Egypt - Premier League – 2025/2026

Smouha vs Al Ahly Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
5.34
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
61%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.45
Over 2.5
42%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.6
No
53%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
50%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
31%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
16%
+1.2pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.8pp
61%
Away Win
57%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
65%
-7.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
35%
+7.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
34%
+12.5pp
53%
BTTS No
66%
-12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smouha v Al Ahly — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smouha EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 61%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
0.93/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.70
+26% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
212 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 82%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
8.3 Crosses 22.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

Smouha vs Al Ahly Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smouha
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Al Ahly
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.73 xG 1.34
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
226 Passes 402
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.01.2025 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-0 HT 1-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
08.08.2024 Smouha Smouha 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
28.11.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR
17.04.2023 Smouha Smouha 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
17.01.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-1 HT 3-0 Smouha Smouha MSRK
25.12.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 Smouha Smouha MSR

Smouha 0-1 Al Ahly — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smouha
0-1
AWAY Al Ahly
0.75 xG 0.72
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
318 Passes 353
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Smouha vs Al Ahly
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly nicked a narrow win over Smouha 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Smouha had 49% of the ball to Al Ahly's 51%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.75 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Smouha and 1.33 for Al Ahly.

What was the final score of Smouha vs Al Ahly?

Smouha 0-1 Al Ahly in the Egypt - Premier League on 23/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smouha vs Al Ahly?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Smouha 17%, draw 22%, Al Ahly 61%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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