Hamilton 3-2 Alloa Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 11 May 2024

Hamilton
3-2 HT 2-1
Alloa Athletic
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Scotland - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Hamilton vs Alloa Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
1.64
Draw
28%
4.19
Away
39%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.6
No
40%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
7.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
2.14
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.1
X/1
15%
4.03
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
8.88
X/X
12%
6.77
2/1
8%
19.4
2/2
14%
6.11
2/X
9%
16.25
Value flag · X/2 at 8.88 — our 16% vs market 7.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
56%
-23.2pp
28%
Draw
20%
+8.0pp
39%
Away Win
23%
+15.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.5pp
40%
BTTS No
42%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamilton v Alloa Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamilton EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Alloa Athletic EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.16/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.68
-40% / +80% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Hamilton vs Alloa Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamilton
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Alloa Athletic
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
The Meetings
07.05.2024 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 2-2 HT 0-1 Hamilton Hamilton İK1
24.02.2024 Hamilton Hamilton 1-2 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
09.12.2023 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Hamilton Hamilton İK1
16.09.2023 Hamilton Hamilton 2-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
13.05.2023 Hamilton Hamilton 5-2 HT 4-2 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
09.05.2023 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamilton Hamilton İK1
POST-MATCH Hamilton vs Alloa Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamilton nicked a narrow win over Alloa Athletic 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Hamilton found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hamilton and 1.33 for Alloa Athletic.

What was the final score of Hamilton vs Alloa Athletic?

Hamilton 3-2 Alloa Athletic in the Scotland - 1st Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamilton vs Alloa Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alloa Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hamilton 33%, draw 28%, Alloa Athletic 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Alloa Athletic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alloa Athletic) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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