Racing Ferrol 2-1 Alcorcon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
5.88
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
11%
4.31
X/2
12%
7.16
X/X
15%
3.41
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
12%
6.19
2/X
5%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.9pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Ferrol EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.30/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.42
-2% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
347 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 72%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
27.6 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Ferrol
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Alcorcon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.82 xG 1.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
377 Passes 287
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 Alcorcon Alcorcon 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS2
12.03.2023 Alcorcon Alcorcon 0-1 HT 0-1 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol İS3
17.12.2022 Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol 1-2 HT 0-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Ferrol
2-1
AWAY Alcorcon
1.11 xG 0.87
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
421 Passes 185
85% Pass Accuracy 65%
32 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Racing Ferrol vs Alcorcon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Ferrol edged past Alcorcon 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Racing Ferrol as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Racing Ferrol had 64% of the ball to Alcorcon's 36%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.11 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Racing Ferrol and 1.00 for Alcorcon.

What was the final score of Racing Ferrol vs Alcorcon?

Racing Ferrol 2-1 Alcorcon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Ferrol vs Alcorcon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Ferrol win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Racing Ferrol 42%, draw 29%, Alcorcon 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Racing Ferrol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Racing Ferrol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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