Gimnastic Tarragona 2-1 SD Logrones — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.33
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
21%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.51
No
64%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 29.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+4.0pp
21%
Away Win
12%
+8.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
36%
+0.2pp
64%
BTTS No
64%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gimnastic Tarragona EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY SD Logrones EU Bookmakers 15%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
1.29/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.57
-29% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +8%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
387 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 201 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gimnastic Tarragona
2W-1D-0L
AWAY SD Logrones
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 SD Logrones SD Logrones 0-2 HT 0-1 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona İS3
22.01.2023 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona 0-0 HT 0-0 SD Logrones SD Logrones İS3
29.10.2022 SD Logrones SD Logrones 1-2 HT 0-0 Gimnastic Tarragona Gimnastic Tarragona İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gimnastic Tarragona
2-1
AWAY SD Logrones
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gimnastic Tarragona vs SD Logrones
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gimnastic Tarragona edged past SD Logrones 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gimnastic Tarragona as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gimnastic Tarragona had 54% of the ball to SD Logrones's 46%, shots finished 13-2.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gimnastic Tarragona had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gimnastic Tarragona and 0.33 for SD Logrones.

What was the final score of Gimnastic Tarragona vs SD Logrones?

Gimnastic Tarragona 2-1 SD Logrones in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gimnastic Tarragona vs SD Logrones?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gimnastic Tarragona win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Gimnastic Tarragona 58%, draw 21%, SD Logrones 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gimnastic Tarragona) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gimnastic Tarragona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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