11/05/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Lugo vs Cornella Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
💡 For the risk lovers:
Home Win
★★★
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
27%
Draw
27%
27%
Away Win
24%
57%
Under 2.5
57%
43%
Over 2.5
43%
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
52%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lugo v Cornella — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Lugo
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
Cornella
EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% /
-2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-2% /
-14%
1.24/1.01
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.99/1.34
-18%
/
-17%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+5%
/
-8%
54%
Ball Possession
46%
12
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
3
4
Corners
3
322 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
270 · 72%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
10.0
Crosses
–
3.0
Yellow Cards
2.0
Lugo vs Cornella Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Lugo
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Cornella
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
56%
Ball Possession
44%
11
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Target
5
6
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
16.12.2023
Cornella
1-0
HT 0-0
Lugo
İS3
1-0
HT 0-0
Lugo
İS3
Lugo 3-1 Cornella — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Lugo
3-1
AWAY
Cornella
47%
Ball Possession
53%
12
Total Shots
14
5
Shots on Target
4
3
Corners
3
3
Yellow Cards
2
POST-MATCH
Lugo vs Cornella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Lugo beat Cornella 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lugo had 47% of the ball to Cornella's 53%, shots finished 12-14.
What was the final score of Lugo vs Cornella?
Lugo 3-1 Cornella in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lugo vs Cornella?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lugo 46%, draw 27%, Cornella 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Lugo)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İS3
More Spain - 2nd Division B
11 May 2024