Holstein Kiel 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 11 May 2024

Holstein Kiel
1-1 HT 1-0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
39%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
10%
5.67
X/2
14%
5.63
X/X
12%
5.31
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
15%
3.51
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
39%
Away Win
37%
+1.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.5pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v Fortuna Düsseldorf — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +16%
1.65/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.36
+22% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
20.1 Crosses 19.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.56 xG 1.40
49% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
380 Passes 392
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
06.05.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-0 HT 3-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
29.10.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
06.02.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
20.08.2021 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-2 HT 1-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
08.02.2021 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2

Holstein Kiel 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-1
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.44 xG 2.13
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 13
278 Passes 464
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 38% of the ball to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 62%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 1.44 to 2.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.17 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Holstein Kiel 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 33%, draw 29%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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