Avondale Heights 5-1 Port Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
59%
-11.9pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.3pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.7pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avondale Heights EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Melbourne EU Bookmakers 23%
+6% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +27%
2.75/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.66
+23% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.8 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avondale Heights
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Port Melbourne
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.56 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
374 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.05.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 1-0 HT 0-0 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
18.02.2023 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 2-2 HT 1-1 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
26.07.2022 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 1-2 HT 0-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
23.04.2022 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 0-2 HT 0-2 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
16.04.2021 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 1-1 HT 1-0 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
07.03.2015 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 0-0 HT 0-0 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Avondale Heights vs Port Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avondale Heights cruised past Port Melbourne 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Avondale Heights as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avondale Heights had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Avondale Heights and 0.83 for Port Melbourne.

What was the final score of Avondale Heights vs Port Melbourne?

Avondale Heights 5-1 Port Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avondale Heights vs Port Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avondale Heights win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Avondale Heights 48%, draw 26%, Port Melbourne 27%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avondale Heights), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Avondale Heights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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