Anderlecht 2-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 May 2024

Anderlecht
2-1 HT 1-0
Genk
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Anderlecht vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.48
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.48 — our 24% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.73
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
10%
4.9
X/2
11%
7.31
X/X
11%
5.29
2/1
10%
22.7
2/2
16%
4.77
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.0pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Anderlecht v Genk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.57/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.63
-15% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
16.2 Crosses 14.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Anderlecht vs Genk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anderlecht
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Genk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.89 xG 2.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
380 Passes 368
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
23.12.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
03.09.2023 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
16.04.2023 Genk Genk 5-2 HT 2-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
21.12.2022 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEK
13.11.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL

Anderlecht 2-1 Genk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anderlecht
2-1
AWAY Genk
1.17 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
338 Passes 417
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 38
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Anderlecht vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht nicked a narrow win over Genk 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Anderlecht as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Anderlecht had 46% of the ball to Genk's 54%, shots finished 16-19, expected goals 1.17 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Anderlecht and 2.00 for Genk.

What was the final score of Anderlecht vs Genk?

Anderlecht 2-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anderlecht vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Anderlecht 42%, draw 26%, Genk 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Anderlecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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