Sporting Charleroi 3-1 Kortrijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 28% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.1
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
16%
5.21
X/2
16%
6.34
X/X
8%
5.27
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
11%
4.06
2/X
11%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.4pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kortrijk EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +7%
1.61/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.35
-23% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +38%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
19.2 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Charleroi
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kortrijk
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.11 xG 0.90
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
370 Passes 305
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.04.2024 Kortrijk Kortrijk 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
03.02.2024 Kortrijk Kortrijk 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
23.09.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-0 HT 1-0 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEL
04.03.2023 Kortrijk Kortrijk 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
18.10.2022 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 2-2 HT 2-0 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEL
25.01.2022 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-1 HT 1-1 Kortrijk Kortrijk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Charleroi
3-1
AWAY Kortrijk
2.12 xG 0.81
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
465 Passes 270
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Charleroi vs Kortrijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Charleroi beat Kortrijk 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Charleroi as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sporting Charleroi had 60% of the ball to Kortrijk's 40%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 2.12 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Charleroi had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Charleroi and 0.83 for Kortrijk.

What was the final score of Sporting Charleroi vs Kortrijk?

Sporting Charleroi 3-1 Kortrijk in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Charleroi vs Kortrijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Charleroi win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sporting Charleroi 42%, draw 26%, Kortrijk 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Charleroi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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