Baltika Kaliningrad 2-3 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.03
Over 2.5
42%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.61
No
56%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.91
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 33% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.39
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
9%
6.53
X/2
17%
4.97
X/X
12%
5.05
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
15%
3.0
2/X
11%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
39%
Away Win
42%
-3.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
45%
+12.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
55%
-12.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.8pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.21/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.39
-28% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
286 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
20.0 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.71 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
263 Passes 300
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-0 HT 0-0 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUS
19.04.2022 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Baltika Kaliningrad
2-3
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.61 xG 1.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
366 Passes 402
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 4
FAQ Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Dinamo Moscow edged past Baltika Kaliningrad 3-2 away from home in the Russia - Premier League on 11 May 2024. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 42% and both teams to score was close to even at 44%.

On the day, Baltika Kaliningrad had 48% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 52%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.61 to 1.89.

Across their last 2 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow lead the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Baltika Kaliningrad and 1.50 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow?

Baltika Kaliningrad 2-3 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Baltika Kaliningrad 32%, draw 29%, Dinamo Moscow 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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