Maribor 2-1 Olimpija Ljubljana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.56
No
54%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.59
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
11%
8.21
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.59 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
60%
-14.2pp
54%
BTTS No
40%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maribor EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.49/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.24
-2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maribor
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2024 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 1-2 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
03.12.2023 Maribor Maribor 3-1 HT 3-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
16.09.2023 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
06.05.2023 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVNK
19.02.2023 Maribor Maribor 2-0 HT 2-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
15.10.2022 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maribor
2-1
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maribor squeezed past Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Maribor as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Maribor had 46% of the ball to Olimpija Ljubljana's 54%, shots finished 11-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Maribor and 1.17 for Olimpija Ljubljana.

What was the final score of Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Maribor 2-1 Olimpija Ljubljana in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Maribor 46%, draw 26%, Olimpija Ljubljana 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maribor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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