Leganes 3-2 Espanyol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
42%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.02
6+ Goals
10%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 32% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.36
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
8%
5.2
X/2
7%
6.53
X/X
15%
4.15
2/1
5%
29.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
27%
4.8
2/X
6%
13.4
Value flag · 2/2 at 4.8 — our 27% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
41%
-10.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
41%
Away Win
30%
+11.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Espanyol EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.30/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.26
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.2 Crosses 17.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Espanyol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.13 xG 0.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
302 Passes 359
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.01.2025 Espanyol Espanyol 1-1 HT 1-1 Leganes Leganes İS1
12.04.2024 Leganes Leganes 0-0 HT 0-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS2
20.10.2023 Espanyol Espanyol 0-1 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
11.04.2021 Espanyol Espanyol 2-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
26.11.2020 Leganes Leganes 2-0 HT 1-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS2
05.07.2020 Espanyol Espanyol 0-1 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
3-2
AWAY Espanyol
1.51 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
271 Passes 247
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Espanyol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes squeezed past Espanyol 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Espanyol at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leganes had 50% of the ball to Espanyol's 50%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.51 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leganes had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leganes and 0.50 for Espanyol.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Espanyol?

Leganes 3-2 Espanyol in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Espanyol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Espanyol win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Leganes 30%, draw 28%, Espanyol 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Espanyol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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