Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v Deportivo Alaves — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
0-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
1-0
HT 1-0
Deportivo Alaves
İS1
Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Deportivo Alaves — Actual Match Statistics
Athletic Bilbao squeezed past Deportivo Alaves 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 60% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 40%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.30 to 0.37.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.17 for Deportivo Alaves.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?
Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 49%, draw 33%, Deportivo Alaves 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.