Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
33%
2.77
Away
18%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.36
Over 2.5
33%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.44
No
63%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
16%
7.0
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.97
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
4%
15.2
X/1
18%
4.38
X/2
7%
7.98
X/X
21%
3.18
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
6%
7.4
2/X
8%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+2.9pp
33%
Draw
33%
+0.3pp
18%
Away Win
22%
-3.1pp
67%
Under 2.5
70%
-3.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
30%
+3.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
37%
-0.3pp
63%
BTTS No
63%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 25%
+7% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.80/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.49
+28% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
321 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 71%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
21.3 Crosses 18.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.44 xG 0.92
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
398 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
16.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
16.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İSPK
22.09.2023 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
09.01.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
01.10.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.30 xG 0.37
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
366 Passes 180
82% Pass Accuracy 60%
16 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao squeezed past Deportivo Alaves 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 60% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 40%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 1.30 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 0.17 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?

Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 49%, draw 33%, Deportivo Alaves 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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