Eldense 1-0 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.98
6+ Goals
10%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.93
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
20%
4.7
X/2
10%
7.1
X/X
14%
4.41
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
9%
5.53
2/X
9%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.1pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eldense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.41/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.30
-9% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.9 Crosses 18.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eldense
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Malaga
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.02 xG 2.30
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
220 Passes 421
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.12.2024 Malaga Malaga 3-0 HT 2-0 Eldense Eldense İS2
06.12.2023 Malaga Malaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Eldense Eldense İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eldense
1-0
AWAY Malaga
2.26 xG 0.45
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
320 Passes 244
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
39 Box Touches 16
40 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Eldense vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eldense edged past Malaga 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Eldense as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Eldense had 54% of the ball to Malaga's 46%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.26 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Eldense's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Malaga led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Eldense and 2.00 for Malaga.

What was the final score of Eldense vs Malaga?

Eldense 1-0 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eldense vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eldense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Eldense 43%, draw 31%, Malaga 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eldense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Eldense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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