Fuenlabrada 1-2 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.53
6+ Goals
8%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 33% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+4.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-5.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.8pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fuenlabrada EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
0.83/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.05
-22% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fuenlabrada
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Ceuta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 5
31.08.2024 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Fuenlabrada Fuenlabrada İS3
05.02.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Fuenlabrada Fuenlabrada İS3
11.09.2022 Fuenlabrada Fuenlabrada 2-1 HT 0-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fuenlabrada
1-2
AWAY Ceuta
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fuenlabrada vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta nicked a narrow win over Fuenlabrada 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Ceuta made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fuenlabrada had 46% of the ball to Ceuta's 54%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ceuta led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fuenlabrada and 1.00 for Ceuta.

What was the final score of Fuenlabrada vs Ceuta?

Fuenlabrada 1-2 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fuenlabrada vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Fuenlabrada 35%, draw 29%, Ceuta 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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