USM Alger 2-1 CS Constantine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.71
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.97
6+ Goals
8%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 36% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
22%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.2pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.7pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.7pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY CS Constantine EU Bookmakers 28%
-12% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.17/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.87
-11% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
1W-2D-3L
AWAY CS Constantine
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.46 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
305 Passes 288
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.04.2025 USM Alger USM Alger 1-1 HT 1-0 CS Constantine CS Constantine CAFKK
21.11.2024 CS Constantine CS Constantine 1-0 HT 1-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
03.06.2024 CS Constantine CS Constantine 1-1 HT 0-1 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
31.01.2024 USM Alger USM Alger 1-2 HT 0-0 CS Constantine CS Constantine CZYR
15.07.2023 CS Constantine CS Constantine 3-0 HT 2-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
24.12.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 1-0 CS Constantine CS Constantine CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
2-1
AWAY CS Constantine
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs CS Constantine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger squeezed past CS Constantine 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had USM Alger as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, USM Alger had 56% of the ball to CS Constantine's 44%, shots finished 14-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CS Constantine led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for USM Alger and 1.50 for CS Constantine.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs CS Constantine?

USM Alger 2-1 CS Constantine in the Algeria - 1st Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs CS Constantine?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 43%, draw 32%, CS Constantine 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (USM Alger) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (USM Alger) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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