JFK Ventspils 2-1 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.22
Draw
26%
6.26
Away
22%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.06
No
47%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
78%
-25.1pp
26%
Draw
13%
+12.9pp
22%
Away Win
9%
+12.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.8pp
47%
BTTS No
56%
-8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JFK Ventspils EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 12%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +20%
1.76/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/2.38
-35% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +8%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JFK Ventspils
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Smiltene
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
3 Corners 3
31.08.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-2 HT 0-2 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
05.05.2024 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 2-0 HT 1-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
27.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-1 HT 0-1 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
29.04.2023 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 0-1 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JFK Ventspils squeezed past Smiltene 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had JFK Ventspils as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, JFK Ventspils had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for JFK Ventspils and 0.50 for Smiltene.

What was the final score of JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene?

JFK Ventspils 2-1 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated a JFK Ventspils win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split JFK Ventspils 52%, draw 26%, Smiltene 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JFK Ventspils), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (JFK Ventspils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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