Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 Rigas FS II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-4 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
16.01
Draw
17%
4.95
Away
62%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
Over 2.5
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
4%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
45%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
4%
+16.1pp
17%
Draw
18%
-0.5pp
62%
Away Win
78%
-15.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 6%
Head to Head
AWAY Rigas FS II EU Bookmakers 81%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.44/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.92
+64% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -17%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
224 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 472 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Rigas FS II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
14.04.2024 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 1-3 HT 1-1 Rigas FS II Rigas FS II LET1
04.11.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 HT 1-2 Rigas FS II Rigas FS II LET1
22.07.2023 Rigas FS II Rigas FS II 1-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progress / AFA Olaine and Rigas FS II shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Rigas FS II carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rigas FS II led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Progress / AFA Olaine and 2.33 for Rigas FS II.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II?

Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 Rigas FS II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rigas FS II win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 20%, draw 17%, Rigas FS II 62%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Rigas FS II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rigas FS II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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