Sandefjord 2-1 Valerenga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 11 May 2025

Sandefjord
2-1 HT 1-1
Valerenga
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2025

Sandefjord vs Valerenga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 28% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.12
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
13%
5.37
X/2
9%
6.66
X/X
14%
5.39
2/1
10%
23.3
2/2
17%
4.33
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.6pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sandefjord v Valerenga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Valerenga EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.59/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.30
+36% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.5 Crosses 18.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Sandefjord vs Valerenga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sandefjord
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Valerenga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.90 xG 2.10
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
356 Passes 320
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-2 HT 0-1 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
29.07.2023 Valerenga Valerenga 2-3 HT 0-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
18.09.2022 Valerenga Valerenga 4-0 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
08.05.2022 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-3 HT 0-2 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
12.09.2021 Sandefjord Sandefjord 3-0 HT 1-0 Valerenga Valerenga NOR
30.05.2021 Valerenga Valerenga 3-1 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR

Sandefjord 2-1 Valerenga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sandefjord
2-1
AWAY Valerenga
0.93 xG 0.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 8
411 Passes 234
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sandefjord vs Valerenga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sandefjord edged past Valerenga 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sandefjord as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sandefjord had 59% of the ball to Valerenga's 41%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.93 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valerenga led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sandefjord and 2.33 for Valerenga.

What was the final score of Sandefjord vs Valerenga?

Sandefjord 2-1 Valerenga in the Norway - Eliteserien on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sandefjord vs Valerenga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sandefjord win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sandefjord 41%, draw 27%, Valerenga 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sandefjord) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sandefjord) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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