Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lechia Gdansk v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Lechia Gdansk
POL
0-1
HT 0-1
Korona Kielce
POL
1-2
HT 0-1
Lechia Gdansk
POL
2-0
HT 1-0
Korona Kielce
POL
0-0
HT 0-0
Lechia Gdansk
POL
Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics
Lechia Gdansk squeezed past Korona Kielce 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lechia Gdansk as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 45% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 55%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.96 to 1.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lechia Gdansk's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.50 for Korona Kielce.
What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 41%, draw 26%, Korona Kielce 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.