Legia Varşova 0-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
7.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.7
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
16%
5.16
X/2
7%
7.61
X/X
11%
5.8
2/1
7%
21.35
2/2
15%
4.93
2/X
9%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.7pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +4%
1.48/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.45
-24% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
345 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 79%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
21.9 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 0.97
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
272 Passes 339
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-2 HT 2-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.05.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 0-2 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
12.11.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
16.04.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
01.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
09.04.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
0-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.08 xG 0.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
319 Passes 363
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
39 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan nicked a narrow win over Legia Varşova 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 49% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 51%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.08 to 0.66 — on chances, Legia Varşova could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.50 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Lech Poznan?

Legia Varşova 0-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 45%, draw 26%, Lech Poznan 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5
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