River Plate 2-2 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
15%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.45
Over 2.5
43%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.81
No
60%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.98
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
6.05
6+ Goals
9%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.98
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
5%
20.3
X/1
23%
3.47
X/2
6%
12.7
X/X
14%
3.91
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
6%
13.1
2/X
8%
23.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
62%
-3.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
15%
Away Win
13%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
65%
-8.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
35%
+8.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
32%
+8.7pp
60%
BTTS No
68%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 16%
-13% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.84/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.34
+13% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +29%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
404 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 69%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
23.1 Crosses 12.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
2W-4D-0L
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.01 xG 0.77
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
450 Passes 198
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2025 River Plate River Plate 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
02.02.2025 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-0 HT 0-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
05.12.2024 River Plate River Plate 1-1 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
09.07.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-0 HT 0-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
18.09.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-1 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
05.03.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-1 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
2-2
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.45 xG 0.68
73% Ball Possession 27%
30 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
603 Passes 154
86% Pass Accuracy 58%
45 Box Touches 4
41 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH River Plate vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate and San Lorenzo shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. River Plate carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, River Plate had 73% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 27%, shots finished 30-5, expected goals 1.45 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, River Plate had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for River Plate and 0.17 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of River Plate vs San Lorenzo?

River Plate 2-2 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split River Plate 58%, draw 26%, San Lorenzo 15%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (River Plate) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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