Spaeri 3-0 Gagra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 11 May 2026

Spaeri
3-0 HT 1-0
Gagra
📅11/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.75
Over
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
40%
4-5
23%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.1pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spaeri The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gagra The Market 31%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +24%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.32
-26% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spaeri
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Gagra
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.03.2026 Gagra Gagra 0-3 HT 0-2 Spaeri Spaeri GUR
05.11.2024 Spaeri Spaeri 2-2 HT 0-1 Gagra Gagra GURCK
12.12.2022 Spaeri Spaeri 3-1 HT 1-0 Gagra Gagra GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spaeri
3-0
AWAY Gagra
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spaeri vs Gagra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spaeri ran out comfortable winners over Gagra 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Spaeri as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spaeri had 49% of the ball to Gagra's 51%, shots finished 8-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Spaeri had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Spaeri and 1.00 for Gagra.

What was the final score of Spaeri vs Gagra?

Spaeri 3-0 Gagra in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spaeri vs Gagra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spaeri win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Spaeri 43%, draw 24%, Gagra 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spaeri) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spaeri) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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GUR More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga
11 May 2026
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