FC Cincinnati 3-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 11 Jul 2026

📅11/07/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.51
Over 2.5
48%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.43
No
50%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
5.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.54
6+ Goals
9%
6.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.05 — our 30% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
66%
-16.0pp
50%
BTTS No
34%
+16.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -62% / +12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati beat Burnley 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Burnley at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs Burnley?

FC Cincinnati 3-1 Burnley in the Friendlies on 11/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 31%, draw 24%, Burnley 45%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Burnley) ✗ Under 2.5
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