Aberdeen 3-1 St. Mirren — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 11 Aug 2024

Aberdeen
3-1 HT 1-1
St. Mirren
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
3.63
6+ Goals
14%
14.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.63 — our 23% vs market 22.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
19%
3.94
X/2
8%
9.43
X/X
13%
4.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.45
2/2
11%
7.48
2/X
6%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 9% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.8pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aberdeen v St. Mirren — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.68/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.37
-2% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 203 · 65%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
23.8 Crosses 22.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aberdeen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY St. Mirren
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.05 xG 2.15
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 244
66% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
30.12.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-3 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
27.08.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
24.05.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-0 HT 2-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
01.02.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-3 HT 0-0 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
24.12.2022 St. Mirren St. Mirren 3-1 HT 1-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP

Aberdeen 3-1 St. Mirren — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aberdeen
3-1
AWAY St. Mirren
1.60 xG 1.13
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
258 Passes 284
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aberdeen vs St. Mirren
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen got the better of St. Mirren 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Aberdeen had 48% of the ball to St. Mirren's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.60 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Mirren led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aberdeen and 2.17 for St. Mirren.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs St. Mirren?

Aberdeen 3-1 St. Mirren in the Scotland - Premiership on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aberdeen vs St. Mirren?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Aberdeen 49%, draw 26%, St. Mirren 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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