IK Sirius 3-1 Kalmar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 11 Aug 2024

IK Sirius
3-1 HT 0-0
Kalmar
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

IK Sirius vs Kalmar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.15
Over 2.5
64%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.15
2-3 Goals
35%
1.86
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
31%
3.04
6+ Goals
15%
9.56
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
15%
4.1
X/2
7%
9.69
X/X
9%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.85
2/2
10%
7.05
2/X
9%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.1pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.7pp
36%
Under 2.5
43%
-6.3pp
64%
Over 2.5
57%
+6.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.6pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IK Sirius v Kalmar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalmar EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.94/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.68
+27% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
563 · 88% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 76%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.0 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

IK Sirius vs Kalmar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IK Sirius
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kalmar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 1.65
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
395 Passes 521
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.04.2024 Kalmar Kalmar 1-2 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
13.08.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 3-0 HT 3-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
03.05.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 2-2 HT 2-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
24.10.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 0-0 HT 0-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
10.07.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 1-1 HT 1-1 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
06.03.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 2-0 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇK

IK Sirius 3-1 Kalmar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IK Sirius
3-1
AWAY Kalmar
1.39 xG 1.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
415 Passes 436
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IK Sirius vs Kalmar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IK Sirius got the better of Kalmar 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had IK Sirius as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, IK Sirius had 48% of the ball to Kalmar's 52%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.39 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IK Sirius had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for IK Sirius and 1.00 for Kalmar.

What was the final score of IK Sirius vs Kalmar?

IK Sirius 3-1 Kalmar in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IK Sirius vs Kalmar?

Before kick-off our model rated a IK Sirius win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split IK Sirius 50%, draw 27%, Kalmar 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (IK Sirius), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (IK Sirius) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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