AIK 1-0 Mjallby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 11 Aug 2024

AIK
1-0 HT 0-0
Mjallby
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.58
6+ Goals
12%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.19
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
17%
3.94
X/2
9%
9.65
X/X
12%
4.93
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
10%
7.62
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.9pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Mjallby EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +19%
1.48/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.38
-12% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.8 Crosses 16.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mjallby
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.15 xG 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
422 Passes 335
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Mjallby Mjallby 1-1 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
09.03.2024 Mjallby Mjallby 1-3 HT 1-2 AIK AIK İSÇK
07.10.2023 AIK AIK 1-0 HT 1-0 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ
03.05.2023 Mjallby Mjallby 0-0 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
30.10.2022 Mjallby Mjallby 1-2 HT 0-1 AIK AIK İSÇ
02.07.2022 AIK AIK 0-1 HT 0-1 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
1-0
AWAY Mjallby
0.70 xG 1.41
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
341 Passes 318
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AIK vs Mjallby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK nicked a narrow win over Mjallby 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AIK as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AIK had 52% of the ball to Mjallby's 48%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.70 to 1.41 — on chances, Mjallby could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AIK had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AIK and 0.67 for Mjallby.

What was the final score of AIK vs Mjallby?

AIK 1-0 Mjallby in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs Mjallby?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split AIK 50%, draw 23%, Mjallby 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AIK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AIK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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