Elfsborg 2-1 GAIS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.07
2-3 Goals
43%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
14%
3.95
X/2
7%
9.39
X/X
11%
5.89
2/1
7%
21.2
2/2
10%
6.93
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
15.9
Value flag · 2/X at 15.9 — our 10% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.9pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY GAIS EU Bookmakers 25%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.89/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.33
+18% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 80%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
20.8 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
4W-0D-2L
AWAY GAIS
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.05.2024 GAIS GAIS 2-1 HT 2-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
18.02.2024 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-0 HT 0-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇK
19.02.2018 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-3 HT 2-2 GAIS GAIS İSÇK
17.03.2013 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-1 HT 0-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇK
07.10.2012 GAIS GAIS 1-2 HT 0-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
26.04.2012 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-1 HT 1-1 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
2-1
AWAY GAIS
1.26 xG 0.82
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
253 Passes 416
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs GAIS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg squeezed past GAIS 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Elfsborg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Elfsborg had 41% of the ball to GAIS's 59%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.26 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elfsborg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Elfsborg and 1.33 for GAIS.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs GAIS?

Elfsborg 2-1 GAIS in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs GAIS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 50%, draw 27%, GAIS 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elfsborg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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