FeralpiSalo 1-0 Athletic Carpi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Pro League Cup, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
29%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.56
6+ Goals
12%
14.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.56 — our 25% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
62%
-12.3pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
16%
+12.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FeralpiSalo EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 19%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-47% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FeralpiSalo
1-0
AWAY Athletic Carpi
48% Ball Possession 52%
24 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FeralpiSalo vs Athletic Carpi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FeralpiSalo nicked a narrow win over Athletic Carpi 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FeralpiSalo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, FeralpiSalo had 48% of the ball to Athletic Carpi's 52%, shots finished 24-3.

What was the final score of FeralpiSalo vs Athletic Carpi?

FeralpiSalo 1-0 Athletic Carpi in the Italy - Pro League Cup on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FeralpiSalo vs Athletic Carpi?

Before kick-off our model rated a FeralpiSalo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FeralpiSalo 50%, draw 21%, Athletic Carpi 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FeralpiSalo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FeralpiSalo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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