FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 Lyngby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.34
Draw
18%
4.62
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.6
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.16
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.9
X/1
17%
3.51
X/2
7%
17.9
X/X
6%
7.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
7%
14.0
2/X
6%
21.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
70%
-6.9pp
18%
Draw
18%
-0.4pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+7.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyngby EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
2.11/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.64
+28% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
464 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 73%
36.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.6 Crosses 16.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Lyngby
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 1.28
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
435 Passes 301
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 HT 1-1 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
03.09.2023 Lyngby Lyngby 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
19.02.2023 Lyngby Lyngby 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
01.08.2022 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-1 HT 1-0 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
12.03.2021 Lyngby Lyngby 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
28.09.2020 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 4-1 HT 0-1 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
1-1
AWAY Lyngby
2.14 xG 0.67
71% Ball Possession 29%
24 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
638 Passes 229
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland and Lyngby couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had FC Nordsjaelland at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 71% of the ball to Lyngby's 29%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.14 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Nordsjaelland had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.00 for Lyngby.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby?

FC Nordsjaelland 1-1 Lyngby in the Denmark - Süperlig on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 63%, draw 18%, Lyngby 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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