Brondby 0-1 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.13
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.75
6+ Goals
11%
15.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.17
1/2
9%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
12%
4.76
X/2
10%
6.05
X/X
8%
4.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
26.5
2/2
13%
4.43
2/X
10%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 13% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-5.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brondby EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.41/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.24
+1% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 70%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.0 Crosses 19.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brondby
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.14 xG 1.14
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
481 Passes 252
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Brondby Brondby 2-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
14.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
10.12.2023 Brondby Brondby 2-1 HT 2-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
07.12.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAK
06.11.2023 Brondby Brondby 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
17.09.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-3 HT 0-2 Brondby Brondby DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brondby
0-1
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.78 xG 1.32
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
439 Passes 413
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brondby vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus squeezed past Brondby 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Brondby at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brondby had 51% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 49%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.78 to 1.32 — the balance of chances actually favoured Brondby.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Brondby and 1.50 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

Brondby 0-1 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brondby win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Brondby 43%, draw 25%, AGF Aarhus 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Brondby) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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