Brondby 2-3 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.07
Over 2.5
59%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
10.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.9
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.7
X/1
11%
3.7
X/2
8%
11.55
X/X
10%
5.92
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
8.96
2/X
5%
17.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
62%
-4.4pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.5pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-3.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+3.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.5pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brondby EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 20%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.68/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.53
+0% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
461 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.4 Crosses 16.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brondby
2W-3D-1L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.12 xG 1.26
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
485 Passes 233
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
10.12.2023 Brondby Brondby 2-1 HT 2-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
07.12.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAK
06.11.2023 Brondby Brondby 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
17.09.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-3 HT 0-2 Brondby Brondby DAN
04.06.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 3-3 HT 0-2 Brondby Brondby DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brondby
2-3
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.81 xG 1.46
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 3
343 Passes 370
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
33 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Brondby vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus edged past Brondby 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Brondby carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brondby had 49% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 51%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.81 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brondby had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Brondby and 1.50 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

Brondby 2-3 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brondby vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brondby win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Brondby 57%, draw 21%, AGF Aarhus 22%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brondby) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brondby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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