Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
48%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.1
Over 2.5
42%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.66
No
57%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
4.05
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.09
6+ Goals
9%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 33% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
24%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.3pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-5.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+14.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-14.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.2pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 56%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.21/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.79
+14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
258 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
17.5 Crosses 17.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.22 xG 1.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
257 Passes 343
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.12.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
23.09.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
07.05.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
05.03.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-4 HT 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
30.10.2022 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
2.21 xG 2.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
22 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 3
189 Passes 276
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 25
33 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb and Hajduk Split couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 46% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 54%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 2.21 to 2.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.83 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 25%, draw 27%, Hajduk Split 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
11 Aug 2024
22:00 Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb Analysis →
22:00 NK Varazdin vs Rijeka Analysis →