Ajax 1-0 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 11 Aug 2024

Ajax
1-0 HT 1-0
Heerenveen
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
26%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.89
Over 2.5
58%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.77
2-3 Goals
36%
2.16
4-5 Goals
27%
2.49
6+ Goals
16%
5.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.95
X/1
18%
3.96
X/2
9%
14.3
X/X
9%
7.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.85
2/2
12%
9.35
2/X
6%
17.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.85 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
65%
-14.7pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.5pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+10.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
2.11/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/2.15
-3% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -8%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
458 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
35.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
21.4 Crosses 16.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Ajax vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.52 xG 1.07
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
519 Passes 276
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
41 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-2 HT 2-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
05.11.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-1 HT 2-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
12.03.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-4 HT 1-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
10.09.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
11.05.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 3-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
16.10.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL

Ajax 1-0 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
1-0
AWAY Heerenveen
1.42 xG 0.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
386 Passes 422
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax squeezed past Heerenveen 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ajax had 48% of the ball to Heerenveen's 52%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.42 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Ajax and 1.00 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Ajax 1-0 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ajax 51%, draw 23%, Heerenveen 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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