Motagua 3-1 CD Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.43
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-3.2pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.7pp
17%
Away Win
15%
+2.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 18%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
2.15/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.83
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
2W-3D-1L
AWAY CD Real Sociedad
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
26.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 3-0 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
29.02.2024 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 1-3 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
13.11.2023 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 3-2 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
17.09.2023 Motagua Motagua 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
17.04.2023 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 2-1 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
16.02.2023 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 0-0 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs CD Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua got the better of CD Real Sociedad 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Motagua and 1.00 for CD Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Motagua vs CD Real Sociedad?

Motagua 3-1 CD Real Sociedad in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs CD Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Motagua 62%, draw 21%, CD Real Sociedad 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5
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