Caldas 1-0 Lusitania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-0
AWAY Lusitania
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Lusitania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas squeezed past Lusitania 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Caldas had 51% of the ball to Lusitania's 49%, shots finished 13-9.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Lusitania?

Caldas 1-0 Lusitania in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Lusitania?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Caldas 43%, draw 27%, Lusitania 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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