Santos Laguna 1-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Aug 2025

📅11/08/2025 · 🕒05:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.87
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
2.94
6+ Goals
9%
9.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+7.4pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.8pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-5.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 58%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.40/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.17
-7% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +1%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 82%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
18.9 Crosses 25.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
293 Passes 324
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.01.2025 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
06.11.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.01.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
27.08.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.03.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
17.07.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
1-0
AWAY Guadalajara
0.95 xG 1.98
33% Ball Possession 67%
3 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 11
176 Passes 420
70% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos Laguna squeezed past Guadalajara 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Guadalajara at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 33% of the ball to Guadalajara's 67%, shots finished 3-17, expected goals 0.95 to 1.98 — the balance of chances actually favoured Guadalajara.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.33 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?

Santos Laguna 1-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 30%, draw 22%, Guadalajara 49%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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