Guadalajara 1-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 28% vs market 22.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-7.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.7pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -17%
1.59/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.91
-3% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
22.5 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.29 xG 0.98
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
325 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.01.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
27.08.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
05.03.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
17.07.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
06.03.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
1-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.88 xG 0.23
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
358 Passes 206
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 7
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over Santos Laguna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Guadalajara had 60% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 40%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.88 to 0.23 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guadalajara's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Guadalajara and 0.67 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Santos Laguna?

Guadalajara 1-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 55%, draw 26%, Santos Laguna 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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