Cruz Azul 1-1 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Jan 2025

Cruz Azul
1-1 HT 1-0
Atlas
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Cruz Azul vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 27% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-6.5pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.9pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruz Azul v Atlas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.98/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.69
-10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
393 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
22.0 Crosses 13.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Cruz Azul vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atlas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.50 xG 1.64
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
365 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.11.2024 Atlas Atlas 2-2 HT 1-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.04.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-2 HT 1-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
02.07.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
07.05.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
23.02.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
17.07.2022 Atlas Atlas 3-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK

Cruz Azul 1-1 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-1
AWAY Atlas
1.45 xG 0.91
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
470 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul and Atlas couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Cruz Azul at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 66% of the ball to Atlas's 34%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.45 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.67 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Atlas?

Cruz Azul 1-1 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 60%, draw 22%, Atlas 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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