Pumas UNAM 2-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Jan 2025

Pumas UNAM
2-1 HT 2-0
Necaxa
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
13.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.39 — our 25% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pumas UNAM v Necaxa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.94/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.48
+18% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.3 Crosses 15.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Necaxa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.26 xG 1.14
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
352 Passes 183
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
01.02.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
16.02.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 3-1 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
17.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.03.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-3 HT 0-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Pumas UNAM 2-1 Necaxa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
2-1
AWAY Necaxa
1.76 xG 1.77
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 25
7 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 2
205 Passes 363
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM edged past Necaxa 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 40% of the ball to Necaxa's 60%, shots finished 15-25, expected goals 1.76 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.83 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa?

Pumas UNAM 2-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 48%, draw 30%, Necaxa 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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