Pumas UNAM 1-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Aug 2025

📅11/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
49%
+1.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.61/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.44
+28% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
19.8 Crosses 15.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Necaxa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.07
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
340 Passes 214
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.01.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
14.09.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
01.02.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
16.02.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 3-1 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
17.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-1
AWAY Necaxa
1.30 xG 0.74
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
436 Passes 185
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM and Necaxa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 66% of the ball to Necaxa's 34%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.30 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.50 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa?

Pumas UNAM 1-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 51%, draw 24%, Necaxa 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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